Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

异常波及其对海上结构铃振现象的影响

海上结构物的铃振(Ringing)现象是新近发现的一种高频共振响应现象,对结构物有显著的破坏作用。从实测资料中发现,在恶劣海况下发生的具有强非线性和非对称性的异常波(Freakwave)有可能引起海上结构物的铃振响应。文中综述了可能引起铃振响应的异常波的研究现状及成果,分析了其能量分布,并指出异常波是海上结构物产生铃振现象的机理之一。     

Power System Transients Analysis by Wavelet Transforms

In contrast to Fourier transform,wavelet transform is especially suitable for transient analysis because of its time-frequency characteristics with automatically-adjusted window lengths.Research shows that wavelet transform is one of the most powerful tools for power system transient analysis.The basic ideas of wavelet transform are presented in the paper together with several power system applications,It is clear that wavelet transform has some clear advantages over other transforms in detecting.analyzing,and identifying various types of power system transients.     

尺度适应性二代小波的图像去噪方法

根据二代小波变换的基本理论和特点,研究二代小波对图像去噪的效果。提出基于二代小波的尺度适应性分解算法,并使用改进阈值函数进行阈值分析后再对噪声图像进行去噪处理。实验结果证明,使用尺度适应性二代小波对图像去噪比其他方法具有更好的效果,去噪后的图像信噪比大大提高。     

基于子波变换的SAR图像边缘提取研究

SAR图像的边缘提取是其图像处理的一项重要内容。将子波变换应用到SAR图像的边缘提取，通过提取子波变换局部极大模来提取图像边缘。仿真实例表明该方法取得的边缘清晰准确，具有一定的先进性。     

基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测

本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时，相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响，从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发，考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实，本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时，对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况（如韦布尔分布），用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测，用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测     

GM(1,1)-Logistic路基沉降组合预测模型研究与应用

路基沉降预测是指导正确施工及运营期路基养护的一个重要因素.GM(1,1)模型及Logistic模型被广泛应用于路基最终沉降量的预测.基于组合预测的基本理论,结合GM(1,1)模型及Logistic模型的特点,提出了GM(1,1)-Logistic组合路基沉降预测模型,采用线性组合预测方法,以过去一段时间内组合预测误差平方和最小为原则来求2个预测模型的加权系数.结合工程实际监测数据的计算结果和分析表明,GM(1,1)-Logistic组合预测模型在预测精度上比单个模型具有更好的适用性.     

一种低信噪比环境下的基音检测方法

噪声是低信噪比环境下影响基音检测准确率的主要因素之一,为此提出一种基于形态学滤波和小波变换相结合的基音检测方法。该方法首先用形态学滤波器滤除噪声,突出基音。然后在小波域利用Teager能量算子区分清、浊音,通过浊音小波系数模的极大值提取基音。实验结果表明,在信噪比较小时该方法也能准确地检测出语音信号的基音,与传统的基音检测方法相比,该方法有较强的抗噪性。     

贵阳枢纽大对门双线隧道超前地质预报技术

针对贵阳枢纽白云至龙里北铁路控制性工程大对门双线隧道复杂的岩溶、水文地质等条件,介绍超前地质预报的综合应用,总结应用效果和存在的问题。超前地质预报实践表明,采用TSP、地质雷达、红外探水、HSP声波反射法等综合超前预报手段,有的放矢,结合地质资料和隧道开挖不断揭露的地质条件综合分析,可以获得较好的预报结果,为隧道中不良地质情况施工提供正确指导。     

超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降变形观测技术

结合厦深铁路(广东段)4标潮汕站场超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降控制施工及沉降变形观测施工实践,详细介绍了沉降变形观测技术,包括观测断面的选取及布置原则、测试内容、测试元器件的布设、沉降预测方法及预测计算、地基固结度的计算及分析,通过预测数据和实测数据的对比,证明了潮汕站场超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降控制施工方案的正确性,对指导同类型施工有借鉴作用。